From what I've seen and heard, his yields for Ohio and neighboring states look pretty accurate. The big question is total acres which no one agrees on.
LuAnn asked me what it cost to grow an acre and I told her $500 before land, machinery and other costs. I think she didn't believe me. Maybe I grow crops too cheaply!
He adds, "The whole industry has underestimated the yield drag of added acres.
If you just look at a trendline of yields.. and look at 2009's 164.7.. and add a couple of years.. "sure we can do 160" Seems like "no problemo.."
However, we've ADDED 10 myn + acres.. since then... and they're (mostly) NOT TOP YIELD potential... there's a reason they were in pasture.. or CRP.. or another crop. Now granted some of the added acres.. such as irrigated cotton in the south and other area's will ADD to the national yield... However, ALOT came from the fringe area's.. and THIS is what I believe the market is missing.
A 152 yield is still "pretty dang good" when you ADD that many acres... with all the problems that we had this year.. wet early.. dry middle.. (and in some area's like the Western Cornbelt still ongoing..) etc..
I'm not saying this is EXACTLY how you get there.. but the point of my break down is to show.. that you don't have to tweak numbers much... snip a little prevent plantings.. and reduce yields a smidge..
My 13,428 IS STILL A RECORD by 334 myn bushels.. THAT IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE at or TAKE FOR GRANTED.
That is 1.0255% of your 2009 yield.. Here.. I'm gonna do about.. 82% of my 2009 yield. What are your yield prospects vs that record year.. USDA has us at 1.0511%... busting 5% over the best ever.. THIS year...???
In 2009 Kansas Averaged 155 bushels.. we had DRYLAND here in the SC part of the state doing 200 (I only did 188.68 but) "dang good." It just flat out POURED OUT.. So I'm still saying that we will beat that year nationally.. just not everywhere. We're gonna be tickled pink to pump out a 473 myn bu crop here.. and that's no small miracle.. it could have been a lot lower.. (see last year..)
Now next year.. as maybe we continue to recover.. and everyone gets off to a better start.. maybe we do push.. 155.. 158.. ?? etc.. but it just didn't happen this year.
as always.. "I could be wrong."
We are all pretty wrong about now. What do you think?
Ed Winkle
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